From the “I hope I’m wrong” department: Why I think an impeachment investigation is safer than beating Trump in an election.
My priority is to see the country move beyond Trump, who puts the nation at great risk. If nominating a 75 year old ex-VP, or a 36 year old mayor, or anyone else gets it done, I’m all for it. But I actually think the safest method is to investigate Trump, and get his financial web into the public eye. It’s not a matter of impeachment. Trump will go crazy when his financial ties become known, because it threatens more than just his Presidency. It threatens his identity. He’ll be forced out of office, just as Nixon was.
Of course the future can’t be predicted. But those who say impeachment will antagonize the country and encourage Trump’s reelection make several mistakes. No choice is made in isolation. There’s always something else not selected. Choosing not to impeach Trump puts all the marbles in the 2020 election. Trump isn’t a normal candidate, and won’t accept election results that don’t have him winning. The situation that evolves may be very dangerous, far worse than what will happen during impeachment investigations.
Three possibilities:
The Democrats nominate someone like Amy Klobuchar or Biden/Harris. Things go well enough, and three weeks before the election it’s clear Trump will lose in a landslide. He instigates a conflict, incites chaos, does something that, he hopes, will let him delay the vote or change the game. The military may acquiesce, because they follow orders more easily than not. The potential disaster is severe.
The Democrats nominate someone like Sanders or Young, someone popular with a base but unpopular beyond. The race with Trump is close. He does his best to demonize. Critically, he calls the vote into question. If the Democrats win, he refuses to accept, claiming it’s a coup. There’s chaos, maybe violence. We’ll see Republicans supporting his lies, even though they know they’re lies. Crisis results, the country could end up with authoritarian Trump.
The Democratic investigations in the house could succeed, in courts, and uncover Trump’s financial situation. He’s indebted to Russian oligarchs and Saudi princes, probably. Done things make him look traitorous and almost poor. Trump will fulminate, claim it’s a coup, charge that it’s fake. But he’ll try to cut a deal: bow out, leave office, keep things under wrap. There won’t be quite the uproar he wants. No one will accept his orders. Pence will become President.
Impeachment may be a good or bad option, but what’s important is whether it will lead to a better or worse outcome than Trump losing the 2020 election. Although it’s easy to hope he’ll just lose, and slink out of office, tail between legs, that’s really not too likely. Trump faces serious legal jeopardy out of office. He has no compunctions about upending the US system. In his shoes, it’s possible to see becoming President for life as the only viable solution.
That’s what we have to prevent. Pretending the 2020 election will just solve things ignores all the signals Trump sends. If impeachment uncovers his financial web, then he will not fight to the death. Instead he’ll leave office before he’s totally exposed. I put more trust in the Supreme Court’s partisans than Trump’s clan. There’s a better chance that they will force him to reveal his taxes, than the chance that Trump will leave office willingly.
Neither option is good. But one is worse.
