A blunder here, a blunder there, and we’ll have a global conflict.

The U.S.A. is in uncharted territory. The President has abandoned allies, many of them vulnerable soldiers in conflict zones. Groups like the Kurds, who shouldered the burden of defeating Isis. Just as Aldrich Ames fed the Russians names of American spies, whom the Russians then executed, Trump is feeding people who led an American effort to enemies.

The U.S. in the midst of post-Watergate despair and confusion, abandoned South Vietnam. But this was after 50,000 U.S. soldiers died in the effort, after the war wrenched the U.S. apart, after the South Vietnamese government failed miserably. Despite the abandonment, the U.S. opened its arms to South Vietnamese refugees, settling more than a million.

In 2018, the U.S. lost only a handful of soldiers in Syria, there’s no groundswell of opposition to remaining engaged, and the country’s divisions are completely unrelated. The abandonment of U.S. allies in Syria is a criminal act the benefits U.S. enemies.

Although many Republicans know it, and criticize it, they won’t confront the logical consequence: the U.S. is run by a criminal who is treasonous.

The U.S. military must be reeling. The services were devastated by Vietnam, which led to decades of soul searching. Watching the U.S. capitulate to Russia in Syria is deeply wounding. But this one is self-inflicted. There’s two risks that may evolve from this, one short-term, one long. The military now joins security agencies like the FBI and CIA who are ignored, villified, and exposed by President Trump. This would lead the military and security services in any country to begin to whisper. If handled adroitly, Trump may be removed legally, via the 25th amendment. But it’s also possible that he’ll be escorted from office by uniforms who will assume executive power. That’s the danger in the short term.

In the longer-term, the Trump era will be studied as a new way to lose wars. Military analysts will debate the mistakes, and ideas will emerge to control the President. The balance between civilian and military control will tilt towards the military. Americans may even accept this, if Trump triggers a conflict. But it will erode democracy.

The U.S. diplomatic corps is already badly damaged, as Trump’s State Department was deliberately hollowed out, and leading diplomats leave in disgust. The nation’s capacity to avoid conflict through patient, careful negotiation has been lost. The U.S. is capable of blundering into a terrible crisis, without a sense of direction. It’s even possible that President Trump might want this, to distract from his problems.

Those who doubt this could happen need to read history. It’s almost 100 years since a series of bad decisions and nasty coincidences led to World War 1. There were idiots in power then, too, especially the Russian Tsar. Trump leads the globe’s most powerful military, has control of the most powerful weapons, and lacks discipline and logic. His false moves could set in motion world shattering consequences.

Never has the U.S. military looked weaker, given their commander seems to love strong men in other countries, and detests his own advisers. China, in the midst of a revanchist movement, may think it can exploit the moment. After all, Trump seems incapable of strategic thought, and has poor relations with his own Generals. China may think the odds will never be better to seize island atolls, or Taiwan. From their perspective, Trump’s decisions are mercurial and oblivious. He might not respond at all. Even if the U.S. reacts, disarray at the top will delay that response, giving opponents crucial time.

Russia will redouble its efforts to interfere for Trump’s benefit in 2020, given the cost/benefit calculation they make. Technology improves, and this time it may not be fake twitter accounts, but fake videos that show the Democrat candidate talking about murdering a child. There’s software that can do this, manipulating real video to change the shape of words emerging from someone’s lips. The Russians will deploy this gleefully.

Republicans would already be practicing impeachment speeches, if this administration was Democrat. Democrats believe the American majority is conservative and xenophobic, and knows they’ll be pilloried in the media if they promote impeachment. It’s up to courageous Democrats and Republicans to prevent Trump consequences.